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Last Updated: Thursday, 16 February 2006, 19:41 GMT
Challenges ahead for Haiti's Preval
By Nick Caistor
BBC regional analyst

Now that he has been confirmed as the victor in Haiti's presidential elections, the challenges for Rene Preval start in earnest.

Rene Preval
Rene Preval is under pressure to bring Mr Aristide back from exile
He must first make sure the political opposition accepts his appointment, and does not immediately boycott Haiti's political life, as it did from 2001 following disputed elections.

This move brought about political paralysis, which eventually ended in the violence that led to President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's removal in February 2004.

As well as establishing a dialogue with the fragmented opposition, the president-elect must also make sure an atmosphere of calm and security returns to the country. For this he will need the support of the 9,500 United Nations troops and police.

The fact that the mission has just been given a further six months in Haiti should allow him a breathing space, although this will probably not be enough to restore any faith in Haiti's police force, which proved unable to deal with the increasing violence two years ago, is badly trained and equipped, and is very thin on the ground in many areas.

At the same time, the new president-elect will hope to convince the international community, and in particular the United States, that he is the legitimately-elected leader of Haiti, and as such deserves their support.

Aristide's shadow

International lending agencies withdrew their co-operation with President Aristide after the disputed 2001 elections, but Haiti desperately needs institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank or the Inter-American Development Bank to help with aid.

If Mr Preval is to make any impact, he needs his predecessor's blessing and support, but not his interference
It also needs the more than $1bn promised by international donors to quickly be made available if the 63-year-old former president is to make good his promise to revive Haiti's parlous economy, boost exports and create new jobs.

But perhaps the greatest problem the newly-elected president will need to resolve is what to do with his predecessor.

Ousted in a controversial manner two years ago, Mr Aristide called for a boycott of the recent elections, but this seems to have had little effect, as voters turned out in record numbers.

In fact, many of these voters appear to have supported Mr Preval because they see him as a loyal follower of Mr Aristide.

Healing

Mr Preval was prime minister during his first short months in power in 1991. When Mr Preval took over from him as president from 1996-2001, this was also seen by many Haitians as a continuation of the same policies espoused by Mr Aristide.

In the election campaign this time, Mr Preval created his own movement, L'Espwa (Hope), separate from Mr Aristide's Lavalas movement. But he is now under considerable pressure to bring Mr Aristide back from exile in South Africa.

Haiti's new leader is not likely to be in any hurry to do so.

Mr Aristide's presence in Haiti would make it very difficult for him to rule effectively: the former president is a highly divisive figure, and what his successor most needs at the moment is the chance to heal the wounds that have made political or economic progress in this poorest country of the Western hemisphere almost impossible for the past five years.

If Mr Preval is to make any impact, he needs his predecessor's blessing and support, but not his interference.


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